Business and Economics
Specify and fit GARCH models to forecast time-varying volatility and value-at-risk.
Are you interested in understanding the fluctuations of the financial market? Do you wish to identify when a stable market becomes volatile? This comprehensive course on GARCH models offers a forward-looking approach to effectively manage risk and reward in financial decision-making. The course starts with the fundamental GARCH(1,1) model and gradually progresses to more sophisticated volatility models, incorporating a leverage effect, GARCH-in-mean specification, and the utilization of the skewed student t distribution for modeling asset returns. Practical applications of these models include portfolio optimization, evaluation of rolling sample forecasts, forecasting value-at-risk, and analyzing dynamic covariances in stock and exchange rate returns.